Long before the founders of Kalshi and Polymarket were even born, a handful of economists were getting amped about a novel approach to dealing with one of humanity’s more egregious shortcomings: We’re bad at predicting the future.
Economists have long advocated for prediction markets as a novel way to improve future forecasting, addressing humanity's inherent difficulty in predicting outcomes. However, the current reality of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has reportedly fallen short of their initial…
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